BuildFax November Housing Health Report Reveals Blanket Housing Market Declines for First Time since 2011

The BuildFax Housing Health Report for November found that the year-over-year rate of single-family housing authorizations, maintenance and remodeling have all decreased. This is the first time since 2011 that all three categories have decreased in the same month, pointing to a potential market slowdown on the horizon. The report, which leverages U.S. property condition and history data to deliver macroeconomic as well as more granular trends, also reveals that eight of the last 10 instances of blanket declines occurred during the recession and its recovery in 2008 and 2009.

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The November 2018 instance of blanket year-over-year single-family housing authorization, maintenance and remodel declines was the first since 2011, when the economy was still in a period of recovery. (Graphic: Business Wire)

Housing Supply by Volume

• Single-family housing authorizations decreased by 0.86 percent year over year.
• Maintenance volume decreased by 5.85 percent year over year.
• Remodel volume decreased by 12 percent year over year.

“More so now than in years prior, the compounding effects of natural disasters, scarcity in the construction labor market and recent tariffs have impacted housing growth – not to mention systemic factors, like rising mortgage rates, that influence consumer behavior,” said BuildFax COO Jonathan Kanarek. “While it’s natural to see some leveling off after steep growth, the next few months will be telling; whether a downturn is on the horizon or the market is simply softening is yet to be seen.”

The report also looked at commercial construction, which shows decreases this month are in line with similar residential declines. However, commercial construction over the last five years has seen steady increases, primarily in construction spend. In fact, BuildFax data suggests there are disproportional increases between construction cost and volume, which point to a labor shortage in the market.

For a look at more trends affecting the U.S. housing market, access the full report here. To learn more about BuildFax, visit www.buildfax.com.

ABOUT BUILDFAX

BuildFax, headquartered in Austin, Texas, is trusted by the largest insurance and financial institutions in the world to deliver business-critical property condition and history data. With the only database of its kind encompassing more than 23 billion data points on commercial and residential structures, BuildFax delivers detailed data on remodeling, solar installations, new construction, roof age, major systems, maintenance history and more. To learn more about BuildFax, visit www.buildfax.com.

METHODOLOGY: BuildFax conducted this study by examining properties in the U.S. between the years 2008 and 2018. Data only includes properties located within permitting authorities with 100 percent coverage during the above time frame. All percentage increase and decrease statistics leverage the same data set across time. Due to historical revisions made by permitting authorities, the data is subject to change. Estimates are as of December 8, 2018.

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