The world of energy stocks is going through changes nearly every week. The swings in the price of oil are sending further shocks that investors are only beginning to digest as part of a new normal. Their solution? Diversify away risk into other sources of energy, those that the world likes to call renewables.
However, there seems to be a new player coming on the scene daily, and the market doesn't seem to know which one to place its faith in. Well that changes today.
You are lucky enough to have an insight into what the market is thinking and which renewable energy company it is backing, but more on that later. Names like Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG), ReNew Energy (NASDAQ: RNW), and Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) will be pinned against each other.
The focus is on three primary energy sources today: nuclear energy, solar stocks, and wind energy companies. So, by breaking down critical ratios within these industries, you will find out just why there is but one clear winner, earning all the love from analysts and the market itself.
Uncover the trend
The alternative energy industry, composed of a universe of roughly 13 stocks, is not doing that great today. On a year-to-date basis, the solar and clean energy industries have underperformed the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLE).
Judging by the 40% decline in the Invesco Solar ETF (NYSEARCA: TAN) and the 30% sell-off in the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSEARCA: PBW), it looks like previously low oil prices had thrown renewable energy stocks out of favor. However, that is about to change now that each barrel is getting more expensive.
Most of the stocks (76.9%) in the clean energy space are in official bear market territory, a definition taken from Wall Street's books. They describe it as a 20% or larger discount from recent highs, and these stocks fit that profile.
However, a few, both ReNew and Constellation, are trading at a respective 86.0% and 99.0% of 52-week high prices, an initial foundation into a bullish momentum thesis and nothing but a precise outlier statistic from the rest of the industry.
Price action is the only thing these two have in common, as valuation ratios and growth expectations are out of the sphere of comparison. However, there are reasons analysts are forecasting a net downside of 20% for Constellation stock.
A fork in the road
Maybe it is because of its size, $124 billion, or perhaps because of its more diversified operations into nuclear (a space not yet as popular as solar or wind). It could also be that analysts are just not excited to see the stock promise below industry-average EPS growth rates for next year.
While the industry expects an average EPS bump of 39.3% for the next twelve months, Constellation is pushing for 15.3%. Therefore, an 11% discount to the industry's average P/E is more than justified, so you just focus on where the growth is.
At a 57.5% premium to the industry's average P/E, Bloom Energy looks more interesting as it commands a higher valuation from the market. An expected 245.5% EPS bump for next year will do the trick if you are wondering why that is.
However, Bloom Energy trades at only 38% of its 52-week high. So, despite promising a lot for next year, the market has been dumping the stock into a deep bear market.
That leaves you with another sensible choice: market and analyst certified!
ReNew is not only a heavy hitter with its 600% EPS bump projections but a clear outlier at a 450% premium to the sector's value! It seems like the growth justifies the price in this case, which is why analysts are confident in slapping a 34.2% upside on the stock for starters.
Some value investors may wonder why anyone would pay that much for just another energy company. Well, suppose the market is willing to do so. In that case, they perceive a higher quality and growth potential than their peers.
Think about it this way: you wouldn't want to skip out on the best heart surgeon in town just because he costs a couple more bucks than the next best one, right? When the stakes are high, such as in Wall Street, players are willing to look foolish today to become winners tomorrow.
The market believes in these assumptions, as seen in the bullish price action relative to its 52-week high. So do yourself a favor, and don't mess around with other alternatives; this one has been chosen by the market already!