What Happened?
Shares of blockchain infrastructure company Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) jumped 6.3% in the afternoon session after stocks rebounded (Nasdaq +2.0%, S&P 500 +1.5%) following a report from The Wall Street Journal stating that the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs, to be announced on April 2, 2025, would be more narrowly targeted. The market reaction indicated that investors took that as a sign the economic impact of the tariffs, particularly on inflation and growth, might not be as bad as they initially feared.
That's a bit of a relief, which likely gave businesses and analysts some space to rethink their outlooks. Earlier, the administration had hinted at much broader tariffs that could have hit any country placing duties on U.S. imports, so this shift was likely a welcome surprise for the market.
Separately, stocks linked to digital assets rose as sentiment in the crypto space picked up, mirroring the improved appetite for risk assets. Notably, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, edged close to the $90,000 mark after falling as low as $79,000 earlier in the month.
Also, the crypto industry secured a notable victory in the previous week when Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that U.S. regulators had dropped a four-year-long case against the company. The lawsuit stemmed from Ripple's $1.4 billion fundraising through the sale of XRP tokens, which regulators had previously classified as securities, subjecting them to strict securities rules. However, it seemed some of these measures were being relaxed.
For context, Ripple was the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap when this news hit. That's big because it means a lot of traders and investors likely have exposure to it. When a major token like this gets regulatory relief, it can reinforce positive sentiment in the broader crypto market.
The shares closed the day at $203.16, up 6.9% from previous close.
Is now the time to buy Coinbase? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
What The Market Is Telling Us
Coinbase’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 69 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 5 days ago when the stock gained 6.8% on the news that stocks rebounded to start the session amid continued market volatility after the Federal Open Market Committee kept rates at 4.25% to 4.50% in its March 2025 meeting. The Jerome Powell-led committee also hinted at two more rate cuts for the year, saying, "Uncertainty around the economy has grown."
The good news is that holding rates steady and signaling two additional cuts this year means no surprises (the market dislikes surprises).
The bad news is that the Fed reduced its outlook growth to 1.7%, down from the previous projection of 2.1% in December. At the same time, the inflation outlook was raised to a 2.8% annual increase for core prices, up from the prior projection of 2.5%. This suggests the Fed sees the macro tilting towards a stagflation scenario, where inflation rises as economic growth slows.
Coinbase is down 21% since the beginning of the year, and at $203.09 per share, it is trading 40.9% below its 52-week high of $343.62 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Coinbase’s shares at the IPO in April 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $618.65.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, it should be obvious by now that generative AI is going to have a huge impact on how large corporations do business. We prefer a lesser-known (but still profitable) semiconductor stock benefiting from the rise of AI. Click here to access our free report on our favorite semiconductor growth story.
