Freight Delivery Company RXO (NYSE: RXO) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, with sales falling 11.9% year on year to $1.47 billion. Its non-GAAP loss of $0.07 per share was 68% below analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy RXO? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

StockStory’s Take

RXO’s fourth quarter results disappointed the market, with revenue slightly missing analyst estimates and a wider-than-expected non-GAAP loss per share. Management attributed underperformance to ongoing softness in freight demand and sharp increases in transportation costs, which compressed brokerage margins. CEO Drew Wilkerson acknowledged that a significant tightening in truckload supply—driven by industry-wide carrier exits and regulatory actions—created “one of the largest structural changes to truckload supply since deregulation.” The company’s cost optimization and technology integration efforts were not enough to offset these near-term pressures, and management openly described the environment as challenging.

Looking forward, RXO’s outlook is shaped by continued soft demand, elevated purchase transportation costs, and a strategic push to leverage technology and a growing sales pipeline. Management expects tight market conditions to persist into the first quarter, with incremental margin opportunities from AI-driven initiatives and ongoing integration of the Coyote acquisition. CFO James Harris emphasized cautious optimism, stating, “While it’s difficult to predict the timing of the demand recovery, any significant improvement could set up for a sharp inflection and RXO is well positioned to benefit.” The company plans to focus on cost discipline, expanding stable sources of EBITDA, and converting its late-stage brokerage pipeline to return to growth mode by mid-year.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management pointed to a combination of market-driven cost increases, technology investments, and integration milestones as central to both the quarter’s weakness and the company’s path forward.

• Brokerage margin squeeze: The sharpest tightening in truckload supply in over a decade, triggered by regulatory enforcement and carrier exits, led to a rapid increase in buy rates that outpaced RXO’s contractual sale rates, compressing brokerage gross margins and impacting profitability.
• Sales pipeline expansion: The late-stage brokerage sales pipeline grew more than 50% year over year, driven by both longstanding enterprise customers and new accounts. Management views this as a foundation for future volume recovery and margin expansion as bid wins are implemented throughout the coming quarters.
• AI and technology integration: The company completed substantial integration of its Coyote acquisition, unifying its tech stack and deploying AI-driven tools for pricing, capacity sourcing, and theft prevention. RXO Connect and Freight Optimizer now leverage proprietary data to improve operational visibility and decision-making.
• Managed transportation and LTL growth: Despite ongoing softness in overall freight demand, managed transportation was awarded over $200 million in new freight under management, and less-than-truckload (LTL) brokerage volume grew 31%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit LTL growth.
• Cost structure and productivity: Management highlighted a 19% increase in productivity and cost reductions exceeding $155 million since the company’s spin-off. These efforts included headcount reductions, real estate optimization, and automation through AI, which are expected to provide operating leverage when demand recovers.

Drivers of Future Performance

RXO’s near-term outlook is shaped by persistent freight demand weakness, regulatory-driven supply changes, and the company’s focus on cost control and technology-driven efficiency gains.

• Regulatory and supply-side dynamics: Ongoing enforcement actions on commercial driver licensing and language proficiency have tightened capacity, raising industry buy rates. Management believes this structural supply shift will eventually drive higher freight rates and favor large, tech-enabled brokerages like RXO when demand returns.
• Sales pipeline conversion and customer wins: The company’s expanded late-stage brokerage sales pipeline, especially among enterprise clients, is expected to support outperformance in truckload volume by mid-year. Successful bid conversions and onboarding of new managed transportation and LTL customers are anticipated to drive incremental revenue and cross-business synergies.
• AI-driven productivity and margin improvement: RXO is investing over $100 million annually in technology, with recent advances in AI-powered pricing and capacity sourcing expected to improve gross profit per load. Management emphasized that continued automation and integration will help decouple volume growth from headcount, increasing incremental margins as the market recovers.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, our analysts will focus on (1) the pace of late-stage sales pipeline conversion and new customer onboarding, (2) margin recovery as regulatory capacity tightening unfolds, and (3) evidence of AI-driven productivity translating into lower cost per load and improved gross profit. Execution on further real estate optimization and integration of technology platforms will also be key milestones.

RXO currently trades at $17.01, up from $16.58 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

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