March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending up +0.10% this morning as investors await the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is crucial for shaping expectations about the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. S&P Global (SPGI) slumped over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the ratings agency posted weaker-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS and issued below-consensus FY26 adjusted EPS guidance. Also, AI-infrastructure stocks retreated, with Western Digital (WDC) sliding over -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) falling more than -6%. In addition, wealth-management stocks sank amid concerns about the disruptive impact of a new AI tool designed to create tax strategies, with Raymond James Financial (RJF) and LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA) slumping over -8%. On the bullish side, Datadog (DDOG) surged more than +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. retail sales were unchanged m/m in December, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m, and core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Also, the U.S. Q4 employment cost index rose +0.7% q/q, weaker than expectations of +0.8% q/q. In addition, the U.S. import price index rose +0.1% m/m in December, in line with expectations.
“The latest news on consumer spending did little to change the outlook for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve, still priced in the Fed funds futures market for the next such move at the June 17 meeting,” said Gary Schlossberg, global strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Tuesday that interest rates could remain on hold for an extended period while officials assess incoming economic data. “Rather than trying to fine-tune the funds rate, I’d prefer to err on the side of patience as we assess the impact of recent rate reductions and monitor how the economy performs,” Hammack said. Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she is hopeful inflation will continue to ease, though it would take “material” weakness in the labor market for her to back further interest rate cuts.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 78.4% probability of no rate change and a 21.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The report was originally scheduled for release last Friday, but was delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Notably, the report will include revisions to job growth for the year through March 2025, which are expected to show a significant markdown in the pace of hiring. Economists, on average, forecast that January Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 66K, compared to the December figure of 50K.
A weak print “would undoubtedly push the Fed closer to a cut,” particularly if Friday’s inflation data come in soft, according to Scope Markets’ Joshua Mahony.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 42% of investors expect the key jobs report to be “risk on,” 37% said “mixed/negligible,” and 21% “risk off.”
Investors will also focus on U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data. Economists expect the January figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y, compared to +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y in December.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists forecast that this figure will remain steady at 4.4% in January.
The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -0.2 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of -3.5 million barrels.
In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
On the earnings front, prominent companies such as Cisco Systems (CSCO), McDonald’s (MCD), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Shopify (SHOP), and AppLovin (APP) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.129%, down -0.39%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.34% this morning as concerns over AI disruption weighed on sentiment. Technology stocks led the declines on Wednesday, with Dassault Systèmes SE (DSY.P.DX) plunging over -19% as the software maker’s Q4 results and 2026 revenue guidance disappointed investors. The company’s weak results and guidance fueled concerns that it could be vulnerable to AI. Also, wealth-management stocks tracked their U.S. counterparts lower amid concerns about the disruptive impact of a new AI tool designed to create tax strategies. In addition, defense stocks fell after the Financial Times reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky intends to unveil a plan for presidential elections and a referendum on a potential peace deal on February 24th. At the same time, mining stocks outperformed. Data from the statistics agency ISTAT released on Wednesday showed that Italy’s monthly industrial production fell less than expected in December, while it increased in the fourth quarter, signaling that the country’s prolonged manufacturing slump may be easing. Investor focus now turns to the key U.S. jobs report due later in the day. In other corporate news, Siemens Energy AG (ENR.D.DX) climbed over +4% after the AI equipment maker reported strong FQ1 results. Also, Heineken (HEIA.NA) rose more than +3% after announcing plans to cut up to 6,000 positions from its global workforce.
Italy’s Industrial Production data was released today.
The Italian December Industrial Production fell -0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.6% m/m.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.09%, while Japan’s financial markets were closed for a national holiday.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed roughly flat today as investors digested softer-than-expected inflation data from the country. Non-ferrous metal stocks led the gains on Wednesday. At the same time, semiconductor and other AI-related stocks slumped. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Wednesday showed that China’s consumer inflation eased in January, pressured by declining food prices, while producer price deflation persisted. Food prices declined 0.7% year-over-year, reversing December’s 1.1% increase, with the statistics bureau attributing the softer headline and food inflation to base effects. Zavier Wong, a market analyst at eToro, said the data supports the view that policymakers still have room to ease further if necessary. “A softer but positive CPI reading keeps doors open for targeted stimulus without the pressure of rising inflation,” Wong said. Meanwhile, China’s central bank said on Tuesday that it will ramp up financial support to stimulate domestic demand, as industrial overcapacity and sluggish consumption continue to weigh on business confidence and cloud the growth outlook. In other news, Chinese stocks have secured their largest wave of net inclusions in MSCI’s key benchmarks in nearly three years, paving the way for increased inflows from index-tracking investors. In corporate news, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. fell over -2% in Hong Kong after China’s largest contract chipmaker provided cautious Q1 guidance for revenue and gross margin.
The Chinese January CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +0.4% y/y.
The Chinese January PPI fell -1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of -1.5% y/y.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index was closed today for the National Foundation Day holiday. The markets will reopen on Thursday.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Cloudflare (NET) surged over +13% in pre-market trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results and issued above-consensus FY26 revenue guidance.
Beta Technologies (BETA) jumped more than +18% in pre-market trading after a regulatory filing disclosed that Amazon had taken a 5.3% stake in the company.
Mattel (MAT) plummeted more than -30% in pre-market trading after the toymaker posted downbeat results for the crucial holiday quarter.
Moderna (MRNA) plunged over -10% in pre-market trading after the company said the Food and Drug Administration declined to review its application to market a new seasonal flu vaccine.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) slumped over -7% in pre-market trading after the online trading platform reported weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - February 11th
Cisco Systems (CSCO), McDonald’s (MCD), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Shopify (SHOP), AppLovin (APP), Equinix (EQIX), Vertiv Holdings (VRT), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Waste Connections (WCN), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB), Rollins (ROL), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Ameren (AEE), Royalty Pharma (RPRX), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Curtiss-Wright (CW), Smurfit Westrock (SW), Humana (HUM), NiSource (NI), Albemarle (ALB), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), SharkNinja (SN), Tenet Healthcare (THC), Tyler Technologies (TYL), Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), Unity Software (U), HubSpot (HUBS), Service Corporation International (SCI), BorgWarner (BWA), Penske Automotive Group (PAG), Confluent (CFLT), Generac Holdings (GNRC), Watts Water Technologies (WTS), Antero Resources (AR), Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), Pilgrim's Pride (PPC), Antero Midstream (AM), Aurora Innovation (AUR), Ryder System (R), Primerica (PRI), NNN REIT (NNN), Liberty Broadband (LBRDK), Lithia Motors (LAD), Darling Ingredients (DAR), MSA Safety (MSA), Avantor (AVTR), Parsons (PSN), STAG Industrial (STAG), Cognex (CGNX), Paycom Software (PAYC), Terex (TEX), Rayonier (RYN), NewMarket (NEU), First American Financial (FAF), SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE), Noble Corporation (NE), Liberty Broadband (LBRDA), Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC), Essential Properties Realty Trust (EPRT), Comstock Resources (CRK), QuantumScape (QS), NorthWestern Energy Group (NWE), Independence Realty Trust (IRT), Kadant (KAI), Cellebrite DI (CLBT), Q2 Holdings (QTWO), Palomar Holdings (PLMR), Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Crane NXT (CXT), Urban Edge Properties (UE), Four Corners Property Trust (FCPT), The Chefs’ Warehouse (CHEF), McGraw Hill (MH), Vertex (VERX), QuidelOrtho (QDEL), Inspire Medical Systems (INSP), CoreCivic (CXW), Getty Realty (GTY), Leggett & Platt (LEG), Fastly (FSLY), Healthcare Services Group (HCSG), Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC), Precision Drilling (PDS), Safehold (SAFE), Piedmont Realty Trust (PDM), Chimera Investment (CIM), Nabors Industries (NBR).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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