If you own shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), the next few days matter more than most.
The Midland, Texas-based satellite company is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results today, March 2.
And given the explosive growth trajectory management has outlined, this is one earnings event worth paying close attention to, whether you're already in or just watching from the sidelines.
Here's what the numbers look like and why analysts are watching this one closely.
What AST SpaceMobile Does
Valued at a market cap of $22.7 billion, AST SpaceMobile is building something that has never existed before: a global cellular broadband network operating directly from space.
Nearly six billion smartphones are in use worldwide today. Millions of them regularly lose signal, including those in rural areas, at sea, and in remote regions. AST's BlueBird satellites are designed to beam broadband connectivity directly to those unmodified devices with no special hardware required.
The company already has commercial agreements with more than 50 mobile network operators globally, including AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), and Saudi Telecom Group. Those partners collectively cover nearly three billion subscribers.
As President Scott Wisniewski put it during the company's Q3 2025 earnings call, "There's not an operator around the world who doesn't want to meet with us."
That's the foundation heading into today's report.
What Analysts Expect When AST SpaceMobile Reports
Wall Street is projecting big things for Q4 2025 and even bigger things for 2026 and beyond.
- For the current quarter ending December 2025, six analysts tracked by Yahoo Finance are forecasting average revenue of $41.55 million. That would represent a staggering 2,066% jump year-over-year (YoY), compared to just $1.92 million in the same period last year.
- For full-year 2025, the consensus lands at $58.85 million, up more than 1,232% from the prior year. That matches the company's own second-half 2025 revenue guidance range of $50 million to $75 million, which management reiterated on the November earnings call.
- Looking further out, analyst estimates from TIKR paint an even more dramatic picture. Revenue is expected to reach $192.95 million in 2026, then surge to $698.86 million in 2027 and $2.1 billion in 2028, a five-year revenue CAGR of roughly 177%.
- The average loss-per-share estimate for Q4 sits at $0.20, widening modestly from $0.18 a year ago. The company is still burning cash as it builds out its constellation, with free cash flow projected to remain deeply negative through 2027, then turn positive around 2028.
That's the price of building infrastructure at this scale.
The Bull Case for AST SpaceMobile Stock
The numbers analysts are modeling aren't pulled from thin air. They're anchored to real commercial progress that management has made public.
In November 2025, AST disclosed for the first time that it had secured over $1 billion in total contracted revenue commitments from commercial partners. Management described them as hard, legally binding commitments with minimum revenue guarantees and, in some cases, significant upfront prepayments. The Saudi Telecom (STC) agreement alone included a $175 million prepayment due by the end of 2025.
On the manufacturing and launch side, AST has been ramping up fast. The company targeted five orbital launches by the end of Q1 and aimed to have between 45 and 60 BlueBird satellites in orbit by year-end 2026: enough to offer continuous commercial-grade service across the United States, Europe, and other key markets.
The company also has over $3.2 billion in pro forma cash and liquidity on its balance sheet, which management says is enough to fund a constellation of more than 100 satellites.
Put simply, the infrastructure build is underway, the customers are lined up, and today's earnings will offer the clearest look yet at how the revenue ramp is actually materializing.
What Is the ASTS Stock Price Target?
ASTS stock has more than tripled over the past year. However, it also trades 39% from all-time highs, allowing you to buy the dip.
Out of the 12 analysts covering ASTS stock, four recommend “Strong Buy,” five recommend “Hold,” and three recommend “Strong Sell.” The average AST SpaceMobile stock price is $86.68, above the current price of about $83.
On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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