New Poll Shows California Latino Voters to be Pivotal in Deciding Balance of Power in Congress

Polling showing support for Democratic challengers in the state’s five competitive congressional districts with approximately over 1 in 5 still undecided

The Latino Community Foundation (LCF), in partnership with BSP Research, announced the results of its latest poll of Latino voters in California’s five competitive congressional districts. These congressional districts will be key to determining which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives next term – and Latino voters make up a big part of each district. The congressional districts included in this poll are:

• CA-13 (Merced) – 50% of all eligible voters are Latino
• CA-22 (Bakersfield) – 59.4% of all eligible voters are Latino
• CA-27 (Palmdale) – 33.3% of all eligible voters are Latino
• CA-41 (Palm Springs) – 30% of all eligible voters are Latino
• CA-45 (Fullerton) – 23% of all eligible voters are Latino

Significant findings of the poll include:

• When asked about their congressional candidate choice for 2024, the Democratic challenger holds a lead ranging from +22 to +36 over the Republican incumbent. Specifically:
• In CA-13, Democratic challenger Adam Gray leads Rep. John Duarte 46%-26% with 28% undecided.
• In CA-22, Democratic challenger Rudy Salas leads Rep. David Valadao 57%-21% with 21% undecided.
• In CA-27, Democratic challenger George Whitesides leads Rep. Mike Garcia 54%-24% with 22% undecided.
• In CA-41, Democratic challenger Will Rollins leads Rep. Ken Calvert 51%-28% with 21% undecided.
• In CA-45, Democratic challenger Derek Tran leads Rep. Michelle Steel 52%-30% with 19% undecided.
• When asked about the top issues facing the country, Latino voters in each of these districts overwhelmingly cite cost of living, housing costs, and concerns over jobs and the economy.
• In addition, on critical policy issues, approximately over 3 in 4 Latino voters across these five congressional districts stated that they would be more likely to vote for a candidate if they supported a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, extended child tax credits for families with children, and passing a law to guarantee abortion access for women who need it.

In the 2022 Midterm Elections, approximately 38,000 votes were the total vote differential between the Democratic and Republican candidates in these five districts.

“Latino voters in California’s competitive districts will play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives,” said Julián Castro, CEO of the Latino Community Foundation. “The choices Latino voters make this election season will produce a Congress that either affirms or rebuffs the next president’s legislative agenda,” Castro continued.

“In five closely watched congressional districts, Democrats have a clear advantage with Latino voters, and the GOP messages do not appear to be having much effect,” said Dr. Gary Segura, lead researcher for the poll. “Nevertheless, Democratic issue positions are still running ahead of Democratic candidates, and there is a large undecided cohort in these five seats. The size of these margins is not historically high and both parties have an opportunity to do some more work,” Dr. Segura continued.

LCF is focused on promoting and cultivating Latino voter engagement by investing in community organizations that are informing and mobilizing Latino voters. In early April, LCF announced $800,000 in grants to 19 nonprofit organizations in critical regions across California, as well as Arizona and Nevada.

“This new generation of Latino voters in Orange County is growing in their political participation,” said Marisol Ramirez, Co-Executive Director of Orange County Communities Organized for Responsible Development (OCCORD) and voting partner of the Latino Community Foundation.

“Knowing how important places like Orange County are in this year's election, we are reaching out to community members to provide information about what's on the ballot to understand what’s at stake, and how they might affect our communities,” Ramirez continued.

Click to download toplines and crosstabs of the poll.

Methodology

A total of 1,000 California voters across five competitive congressional districts were interviewed between October 3-10, 2024, through a combination of online and telephone interviewing in English or Spanish at their discretion. Each district had a sample size of 200 Latino registered voters. The resulting data was weighted using known population characteristics from the American Community Survey and Current Population Survey. The overall margin of error was +/- 3.1% with the margin of error per district +/- 6.9%.

About the Latino Community Foundation

The Latino Community Foundation (LCF) is on a mission to unleash the civic and economic power of Latinos. LCF has the largest network of Latino philanthropists in the country and has raised $100 million to build Latino civic and political power. In 2024, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary, Julián Castro was named LCF’s new CEO. For more info, please visit: latinocf.org.

About BSP Research

BSP Research is a Latino-owned polling, research and analytics firm headquartered in Los Angeles, California, and directed by four PhD-holding political scientists. For more info, please visit: bspresearch.com.

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