On February 10, 2026, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) stands at a pivotal moment. Its stock, trading at $670.72, has recently pulled back from a $744 peak in late January, caught between investor enthusiasm for its AI-led financial surge and deep concerns over its unprecedented $135 billion 2026 capital expenditure plan and a looming antitrust crisis in Europe. The company is executing on a radical strategic pivot—abandoning the metaverse dream in favor of building a sovereign AI compute infrastructure—but that shift is exacting a steep financial toll. With Q4 2025 results surpassing all expectations and a mountain of capital now flowing into “Meta Compute,” the market is tasked with evaluating whether this is a bold leap into the future, or a perilous bet on an uncertain horizon.

Financial Foundation: Earnings Beat and a Capital Explosion

Meta Platforms (META) delivered a masterclass in execution with its Q4 2025 earnings report, released on January 28, 2026. Revenue hit $59.89 billion, up 24% year-over-year and significantly above the $58.3 billion consensus estimate. Earnings per share came in at $8.88, shattering the $8.16 forecast. This performance was powered by an AI-optimized advertising engine that delivered record ad efficiency across Instagram and Facebook.

However, the true story lies beneath the headline numbers. Meta’s operating margin of 41% was a noticeable pullback from 48% a year ago, a direct consequence of the company’s aggressive AI spending. In fact, the company’s 2026 guidance is what sent shockwaves through the market: $115 billion to $135 billion in capital expenditures—a staggering 87% increase over the $72.2 billion spent in 2025.

This “Meta Compute” initiative, announced by CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a total strategic realignment. The goal is not just to use AI, but to own the physical infrastructure that powers it. This means building tens of gigawatts of computing capacity, signing massive power-purchase agreements—including a landmark 6.6-gigawatt nuclear deal with Vistra and TerraPower—and constructing massive facilities like the 5GW “Hyperion” campus in Louisiana. The company is also fast-tracking its custom silicon roadmap, with the 3nm MTIA v3 “Iris” now in broad deployment, and the “Santa Barbara” server chassis designed to house thousands of these chips.

The financial implications are severe. While free cash flow of $14.08 billion in Q4 was strong, it came after $22.14 billion in capital spending for the quarter. For all of 2026, Meta now expects free cash flow to compress significantly, with analysts projecting a median figure of around $25 billion—down roughly 50% from 2025. To bridge this gap, Meta has already tapped the bond market for $30 billion, moving from a debt-free status to a $58.74 billion long-term debt load.

The EU’s Antitrust Hammer: A Regulatory Threat to AI Integration

Just as Meta was celebrating its earnings success, a regulatory threat emerged from Brussels. On February 9, 2026, the European Commission formally charged Meta Platforms (META) with violating EU antitrust rules by leveraging its dominance in messaging to stifle competition in the AI assistant market.

The core charge is that Meta unfairly excluded rival AI assistants from its WhatsApp platform. In October 2025, Meta changed its API policy, effectively banning third-party AI chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT from integrating with WhatsApp Business, while keeping its own Meta AI front and center. The Commission views this as a textbook case of abuse of dominance under Article 102 TFEU, drawing direct parallels to the landmark Google Android and Shopping cases.

The Commission is now considering rare interim measures, which could force Meta to immediately restore third-party AI access across the European Economic Area. Failure to comply could result in fines of up to 10% of global revenue—over $16 billion. Meta has pushed back, arguing the restrictions were necessary for system stability and security, and that WhatsApp is not a “critical gateway” to AI given the ubiquity of web access.

This case is more than a one-off regulatory dispute; it’s a battle for the very model of open versus proprietary AI ecosystems. A ruling against Meta could set a precedent that forces Apple, Google, and others to open their platforms, fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape for all AI developers. For Meta, it represents a significant legal and reputational risk that could delay or disrupt the user adoption of its AI assistant, a critical component of its 2026 revenue growth narrative.

Market Reaction: Strong Buy Consensus vs. Technical Headwinds

The stock market has exhibited a split personality regarding Meta’s new direction. Fundamentally, analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish. Meta holds a “Strong Buy” consensus rating, with 40+ top-tier analysts backing the stock. The average price target of $847.40 implies a 25% upside to the current price, with high estimates ranging as high as $1,144.

Notable upgrades include Morgan Stanley ($825), Citigroup ($900), and Bank of America ($885), all of whom cite the strength of Meta’s ad business and the unique value of its open-source Llama AI model stack. Piper Sandler and Evercore ISI have reaffirmed their overweights, pointing to 19% YoY growth in Instagram engagement and the monetization of its WhatsApp paid messaging platform.

Yet, the technical picture has soured. After peaking at $744 on January 29, 2026, the stock has retreated nearly 9%. It is now trading below its 200-day simple moving average ($687), a bearish signal that contrasts with its position above the 50-day SMA ($657). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the neutral 47–49 zone, while the MACD indicator is firmly in “Sell” territory, suggesting downward momentum is intact.

This divergence reflects the core tension: investors acknowledge that Meta’s AI strategy is sound, but they are pricing in a near-term period of financial pain. The stock is consolidating in a range between key support at $648 and resistance at $744, awaiting either a breakout on strong AI product news or a breakdown on worsening macro or regulatory news.

What Comes Next: The “Yield Cycle” and the Road to ROIC

The coming quarters will be decisive for Meta Platforms (META) as it executes its “build phase” of the “Meta Compute” yield cycle. Short-term catalysts to watch include:

• Q1 2026 Earnings (Late April 2026): Will the $115B–$135B CapEx guidance be upheld? Will free cash flow compression be as severe as feared? A strong show here could reignite the rally.
• Llama 5 Model Release (Mid-2026): Will the open-source community adopt this next-gen model? Its success is critical to Meta’s strategy of building a “self-reinforcing AI ecosystem.”
• EU Ruling on Interim Measures (Summer 2026): An adverse decision forcing WhatsApp API opening would be a major headwind to Meta AI’s growth trajectory.
• MTIA v3 Deployment Scale: Does the company hit its target of 40–44% TCO reduction? This will be the key metric for validating the capital expenditure spend.

The long-term opportunity for Meta lies in becoming a “utility” for AI. If the company can successfully deploy its “Personal Superintelligence” agents—products that can learn, reason, and act on behalf of users—it could unlock a new revenue stream that is not just ad-driven but also subscription and transaction-based. However, the path is fraught with risk. Unlike Google or Amazon, Meta lacks a massive, high-margin B2B cloud business to monetize excess compute capacity. If its consumer AI products lag, the $135 billion investment could become a “stranded asset” problem.

Final Assessment: A Company Betting Its Future on Itself

Meta Platforms (META) is no longer just a social media company. It is a technology infrastructure giant betting its future on AI sovereignty. The financial results are stellar, the strategic vision is clear, and the leadership team has an impressive track record. But the road ahead is uncharted territory.

The market is rightly in a holding pattern. The 24% revenue growth is real, but the 87% CapEx surge is a massive overhang. The EU antitrust case is a serious legal challenge, but not a death knell. The stock’s technical weakness is a warning sign, but not a collapse.

For investors, the key takeaway is this: Meta’s stock is no longer priced for comfort; it is priced for conviction. The company is forcing the market to choose between two narratives: one where the “Meta Compute” moat becomes so deep and wide that it guarantees 2020s-era returns, and another where the capital expenditure cliff creates a multi-year period of low growth and low returns.

What to watch for in the coming months:

• Q1 CapEx spend: Is the $135B guidance realistic, or is it a ceiling?
• Meta AI user adoption: Is the AI assistant on WhatsApp and Messenger gaining market share against rivals?
• Regulatory outcome in Europe: Will interim measures be imposed, forcing API access?
• 2026 CapEx guidance reaffirmation: Will management hold the line or retreat under pressure?

The meta-narrative of Meta’s story is the same as that of the entire tech sector: the race to build artificial general intelligence is the defining investment theme of the decade. Meta is throwing everything it has—financial, organizational, and reputational capital—into this race. The world will be watching closely to see if its bet pays off.