What Happened?

Shares of residential solar energy company Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) jumped 8.4% in the afternoon session after Jefferies upgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Buy" and significantly raised its price target. Analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith adjusted the price target to $21 from a previous $11, a substantial increase of over 90%. This move from the investment firm reflected a much more positive outlook for the company. Upgrades of this nature often signal to the market that an analyst sees improving business conditions for the company, which can attract investor interest and boost share prices.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

Sunrun’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 78 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was about 21 hours ago when the stock dropped 2.5% on the news that a weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence report for September sparked concerns about the economic outlook. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.2, its lowest reading since April. This decline was driven by a more pessimistic view of both current and future conditions. The Present Situation Index, which assesses current business and labor market conditions, fell by 7.0 points. More critically, the Expectations Index, a gauge of the short-term outlook, also decreased. This index has remained below 80 since February 2025, a level that historically signals a potential recession on the horizon. The weakening confidence reflects consumers' growing concerns about the labor market, which could translate to reduced spending and broader economic slowing.

Sunrun is up 83% since the beginning of the year, and at $18.68 per share, has set a new 52-week high. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Sunrun’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $233.59.

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