What Happened?
Shares of beauty products company Estée Lauder (NYSE: EL) jumped 4.1% in the morning session after JPMorgan upgraded the stock from "Neutral" to "Overweight" and significantly raised its price target. The investment bank boosted its price target on the cosmetics giant to $101 from $62, citing better-than-expected performance during the recent "6.18 event," a major shopping festival, and improvements in the company's online business. JPMorgan also placed Estée Lauder on its "Positive Catalyst Watch," indicating anticipation for the company's upcoming earnings report. The firm noted it expected the company to deliver results at the upper end of its guidance range, signaling strong confidence in Estée Lauder's near-term performance.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $89.53, up 3.2% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Estée Lauder’s shares are very volatile and have had 20 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 18 days ago when the stock dropped 3.1% on the news that the major indices pulled back (Nasdaq -0.8%, S&P 500 -0.77%), largely due to escalating concerns surrounding the July 9th deadline for new US tariffs, now amplified by specific announcements.
Earlier in the day, President Trump confirmed that Japan and South Korea would face new 25% tariffs on their imports to the US, effective August 1st. These announcements came ahead of the broader July 9th expiration of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, which failed to produce comprehensive trade deals with most nations. This action against two major trading partners, coupled with the ongoing threat of further tariffs on countries associated with the BRICS bloc, injected significant uncertainty and apprehension into global markets. Investors were likely reacting to the increased costs for businesses, potential disruptions to global supply chains, and the broader implications for international trade relations.
Estée Lauder is up 21% since the beginning of the year, but at $89.53 per share, it is still trading 11.2% below its 52-week high of $100.78 from September 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Estée Lauder’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $464.27.
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