Helios’s 38.1% return over the past six months has outpaced the S&P 500 by 30.8%, and its stock price has climbed to $73.67 per share. This was partly thanks to its solid quarterly results, and the performance may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is there a buying opportunity in Helios, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Check out our in-depth research report to see what our analysts have to say, it’s free.

Why Do We Think Helios Will Underperform?

Despite the momentum, we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than HLIO and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Core Business Falling Behind as Demand Declines

We can better understand Gas and Liquid Handling companies by analyzing their organic revenue. This metric gives visibility into Helios’s core business because it excludes one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures along with foreign currency fluctuations - non-fundamental factors that can manipulate the income statement.

Over the last two years, Helios’s organic revenue averaged 2.8% year-on-year declines. This performance was underwhelming and implies it may need to improve its products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy. It also suggests Helios might have to lean into acquisitions to grow, which isn’t ideal because M&A can be expensive and risky (integrations often disrupt focus).

2. EPS Growth Has Stalled

We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) because it highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.

Helios’s flat EPS over the last five years was below its 10.2% annualized revenue growth. This tells us the company became less profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded.

3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines

We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC can also be an early indicator of future business quality.

We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Unfortunately, Helios’s ROIC has decreased over the last few years. Paired with its already low returns, these declines suggest its profitable growth opportunities are few and far between.

Final Judgment

Helios doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares outperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 26× forward P/E (or $73.67 per share). This multiple tells us a lot of good news is priced in - we think there are better opportunities elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at the Amazon and PayPal of Latin America.

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